There has been a lot of commentary recently about the property market, investor activity, rental pressure and what government policy changes may mean for buyers, tenants and landlords.
But when we look at what is actually happening on the ground in Raymond Terrace, the story is not as simple as the headlines suggest.
Recently, Kate shared her thoughts around the 2026 Federal Budget and the prediction that changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax would only increase rents by around $2 per week. Quite honestly, the math isn’t mathing for her. We have seen tenancies increase 4-15% in a matter of 6-12 months, and a number of tenancies that are 5+ years increase at around 54% over 5 years.
That is not because we are looking at it from a political point of view. It is because we are looking at it from a real-time local market point of view.
We are speaking to buyers, tenants, landlords and investors every day. We are seeing who is attending inspections, who is making offers, who is sitting on the sidelines, and who is still actively trying to secure property.
And right now, Raymond Terrace is not behaving like a market that has stopped moving.
In April 2026, we sold a unit in a Bowman Drive strata complex for $580,000. Two other units in the same complex, in similar condition, sold for $475,000 in October 2025. In October 2025, we sold a unit in a Chifley Drive strata complex for $450,000. Another unit in the same complex, in similar condition and arguably not as good as the one we sold has just sold for $540,000 in March.
That is not a slight increase. That is roughly a 20% rise in just five to six months, within strata complexes where sales had started to slow due to concerns around levies. At the same time, we currently have multiple listings either under offer or in cooling-off periods.
So while broader market reporting may be suggesting a slowdown, we are seeing a very different picture locally. What is even more interesting is the buyer behaviour we are seeing.
This week, after the 2026 Budget was released, we sent a text message to more than 200 active buyers about a property that sits well under the first home buyer cap. On paper, it should have been exactly the type of property that first home buyers would be watching closely.
The response?
Eight investors responded.
One first home buyer responded.
That does not mean first home buyers are not active, and it does not mean every property will follow the same pattern. But it does show that investor appetite for existing properties has not disappeared in our area. It also shows that simply creating policy aimed at shifting property from investors to first home buyers does not automatically mean first home buyers will be the ones ready, able or willing to act. We’re hearing a lot about banks cancelling pre-approval and requesting the application process start again, which could leave buyers with less capacity.
This is where local context matters.
Raymond Terrace continues to offer a price point that is still accessible compared to many surrounding areas. It offers solid rental demand, attractive yields, proximity to Newcastle, the airport, employment hubs and lifestyle locations, and a growing level of interest from buyers who are being priced out elsewhere.
For investors, that matters.
For first home buyers, that matters.
For Council and future planning, that also matters.
Because if development decisions are being made based only on broad media commentary or national predictions, they may not reflect what is actually happening in this local market.
The reality is that housing demand has not gone away. People still need somewhere to live. Tenants still need rental properties. Buyers still need homes. Investors are still assessing yield, affordability and future growth. And in Raymond Terrace, we are continuing to see evidence of movement.
The risk with broad commentary is that it can create a false sense of what is happening locally. It can make people think the market has stalled when it has not. It can make investors hesitate when demand is still strong. It can make first home buyers wait for a drop that may not come in the way they expect. And it can influence development conversations at a time when local data should be front and centre.
This is why we keep talking about real-time market evidence. Not because every sale is a headline. But because every sale tells us something. When comparable properties in the same complex are moving by around 20% in a matter of months, that tells us something. When six listings are under offer or cooling off at the same time, that tells us something. When a property under the first home buyer cap receives stronger enquiry from investors than first home buyers, that tells us something. And when rental demand remains tight, while government forecasts suggest only a minor increase in rents, it is fair to question whether those forecasts reflect what is happening in markets like ours.
Raymond Terrace is not Sydney. It is not Newcastle. It is not a line item in a national property report. It is a local market with its own movement, its own buyer behaviour, its own rental pressures and its own opportunities. And from what we are seeing right now, the market is still active, still competitive, and still being driven by people who understand the value of this area.
The headlines may be saying one thing. But the local data is telling a very different story.
Need Local Market Advice You Can Actually Trust?
National property commentary only tells part of the story. Our team works with buyers, sellers, investors and landlords every day, giving us real-time insight into what is really happening in Raymond Terrace.
👉 Speak with the team at Dowling Property Raymond Terrace.